Youngkin's Virginia Win Wasn't a Result of the Usual Trends

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Elections|Republicans broke done successful Virginia, but not for the accustomed reasons.

Glenn Youngkin won by making wide  gains implicit    Democrats successful  each   portion  of the state, crossed  each   demographic group.
Credit...Melissa Lyttle for The New York Times

Nate Cohn

  • Nov. 3, 2021Updated 2:58 p.m. ET

Over the past 2 decades, American authorities has steadily polarized on municipality and agrarian lines, with Democrats moving up the people successful well-educated metropolitan areas and Republicans making gains successful the countryside.

For 1 nighttime successful Virginia, that inclination did not continue.

In a departure from caller demographic trends, determination weren’t truly immoderate notable demographic trends successful Virginia astatine all.

Glenn Youngkin, the Republican campaigner for governor, won by making wide gains implicit Democrats successful each portion of the authorities and, apparently, crossed each demographic group. He gained successful the cities, the suburbs and agrarian areas. He gained successful the eastbound and west. He made inroads successful precincts with some achromatic and nonwhite voters.

It’s an unusually elemental representation for specified a noteworthy result. When a campaigner outperforms expectations, it’s often accompanied by a large breakthrough among a peculiar demographic group; erstwhile a campaigner disappoints, they inactive usually person a fewer agleam spots. There were nary agleam spots for the Democratic candidate, Terry McAuliffe, but nary breakthroughs for Mr. Youngkin, either.

The wide displacement to the close could bespeak wide revulsion against Democrats, oregon it could simply beryllium a motion that longstanding trends person yet tally their course. Or possibly it’s due to the fact that Mr. Youngkin adopted a connection that appealed to the kinds of voters who person gradually been fleeing the Republican Party.

Whatever the reason, it makes it harder to archer the accustomed communicative astir wherefore Democrats mislaid connected Tuesday.

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